The bubble is about to pop. We will soon see another massive stock market crash, like the end of the dotcom boom in April 2000 and the 2008 recession.

The evidence is in the margin debt ratio. To simulate the economy out of recession, the Fed set interest rates very low. Investors took advantage of that to borrow cheap money to buy stocks. That caused stock to go up, so more investors borrowed more money to buy stock, which led to yet higher prices.

This chart shows margin debt and stock prices for the last 35 years. It even includes the 1988 crash.

The Bubble of 2014


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The poster child is Twitter, which is 350X earnings. That’s a completely crazy valuation. When Twitter crashes, the social media boom in San Francisco will crash: tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs and their $1 million condos.